Immigration could prove to be the magic word in elections
Immigration could prove to be the magic word in elections
By Michael Tackett
Copyright © 2007, Chicago Tribune
August 19, 2007
Beyond Washington's infamous Beltway, miles from where the climbers meet each day to conduct the nation's business, there is a land of unbridled growth. Row upon row of three-car garages meet big-box store blandness and high-tech religion in a big-box church. And the people who live there are among the most coveted voters in the country.
In Virginia's Prince William and Loudoun Counties, once the sticks and now the seemingly desirable exurbs of your nation's capital, elections can be won and lost. For Republicans, victory is a matter of running up huge numbers; for Democrats it is a matter of keeping the margins close or, in a very good year, actually winning.
The area's importance was evident last fall when Jim Webb, a Republican war hero turned anti-war Democrat, ousted the incumbent U.S. senator, Republican George Allen. It was no small feat, given that Allen had been hailed as the second coming of Ronald Reagan. By running so well in just these two counties, Webb secured victory.
Now these exurbs are sending another powerful signal, one that might affect who sits in the White House in January 2009. The current refried wisdom in Washington is that Republicans are near clueless, with little chance of keeping the White House and even less chance of regaining a majority in Congress.
But in the subdivisions of places like Prince William and Loudoun Counties, there is hope for the recently defeated. And it comes in an unlikely form. Not as support for Rudolph Giuliani, John McCain or Mitt Romney; and not out of contempt for Hillary Clinton either.
No, it comes in the form of county proposals to cut off benefits for illegal immigrants. Just last month, both counties passed harsh measures that would deny almost any public service to an undocumented immigrant and impose tough penalties on employers who hire them, stoking a sentiment that could actually have as much impact on the presidential race as any other domestic issue.
Officials complained of the drain on the county treasury caused by the number of "illegals" who were using public services such as hospitals and schools. They didn't complain that the burgeoning construction industry also seemed to use the same workers as a source of cheaper labor.
And one has to wonder whether all of those great public servants are also doing their own landscaping, cutting their own grass or painting their own homes.
There were signs of this even in the 2006 campaign, perhaps most notably when a Republican candidate for Congress from the Dubuque, Iowa, area, taped his first campaign commercial on the Mexican border and talked about the dangers illegal immigration represented.
The issue seems most potent, in fact, in areas where illegal immigrants are relatively new and relatively scarce. That hasn't stopped Republican candidates for president from embracing any number of ideas that would deliver stern punishment. The one candidate who seems to understand the complexities, McCain, was essentially booed when he talked with some warmth and nuance about Latinos and Native Americans in his home state of Arizona.
President Bush made immigration "reform" a top priority for his administration, but ultimately, he could not persuade enough Republicans to go along with him, and reform went to the back of the line.
The failure of that legislation might actually be the best thing that could happen for the Republican nominee in 2008.
According to estimates by the Federation for American Immigration Reform, which supports restrictive policies like the ones in Prince William and Loudoun Counties, more than 171 state and local immigration bills have become law in 41 states just this year. More than 1,200 additional pieces of legislation that target illegal immigration are being drafted and considered.
A federal judge recently issued a permanent injunction against one such ordinance in Hazleton, Pa., a city with the cheery civic motto of "the toughest place on illegal immigrants in America." Ever vigilant, however, the city is vowing an appeal, all the way to the Supreme Court if necessary.
At this point in the 2004 presidential election cycle, few were talking about how much impact gay marriage -- essentially a non-issue in the White House race -- would shape the outcome. More than one expert, though, has said that without the gay-marriage measures on the ballot, George W. Bush would not have won a second term.
Now, some top Democratic officials believe that these seemingly local immigration initiatives could do the same thing in 2008.
So while the high profile of the campaign will focus on the war, the economy, trade and education, the lower road might be the one where operatives are targeting key states with this campaign's version of gay marriage.
No one ever said it was high-minded. It's the nativist strategy in the global age. And it could work.
----------
mtackett@tribune.com
By Michael Tackett
Copyright © 2007, Chicago Tribune
August 19, 2007
Beyond Washington's infamous Beltway, miles from where the climbers meet each day to conduct the nation's business, there is a land of unbridled growth. Row upon row of three-car garages meet big-box store blandness and high-tech religion in a big-box church. And the people who live there are among the most coveted voters in the country.
In Virginia's Prince William and Loudoun Counties, once the sticks and now the seemingly desirable exurbs of your nation's capital, elections can be won and lost. For Republicans, victory is a matter of running up huge numbers; for Democrats it is a matter of keeping the margins close or, in a very good year, actually winning.
The area's importance was evident last fall when Jim Webb, a Republican war hero turned anti-war Democrat, ousted the incumbent U.S. senator, Republican George Allen. It was no small feat, given that Allen had been hailed as the second coming of Ronald Reagan. By running so well in just these two counties, Webb secured victory.
Now these exurbs are sending another powerful signal, one that might affect who sits in the White House in January 2009. The current refried wisdom in Washington is that Republicans are near clueless, with little chance of keeping the White House and even less chance of regaining a majority in Congress.
But in the subdivisions of places like Prince William and Loudoun Counties, there is hope for the recently defeated. And it comes in an unlikely form. Not as support for Rudolph Giuliani, John McCain or Mitt Romney; and not out of contempt for Hillary Clinton either.
No, it comes in the form of county proposals to cut off benefits for illegal immigrants. Just last month, both counties passed harsh measures that would deny almost any public service to an undocumented immigrant and impose tough penalties on employers who hire them, stoking a sentiment that could actually have as much impact on the presidential race as any other domestic issue.
Officials complained of the drain on the county treasury caused by the number of "illegals" who were using public services such as hospitals and schools. They didn't complain that the burgeoning construction industry also seemed to use the same workers as a source of cheaper labor.
And one has to wonder whether all of those great public servants are also doing their own landscaping, cutting their own grass or painting their own homes.
There were signs of this even in the 2006 campaign, perhaps most notably when a Republican candidate for Congress from the Dubuque, Iowa, area, taped his first campaign commercial on the Mexican border and talked about the dangers illegal immigration represented.
The issue seems most potent, in fact, in areas where illegal immigrants are relatively new and relatively scarce. That hasn't stopped Republican candidates for president from embracing any number of ideas that would deliver stern punishment. The one candidate who seems to understand the complexities, McCain, was essentially booed when he talked with some warmth and nuance about Latinos and Native Americans in his home state of Arizona.
President Bush made immigration "reform" a top priority for his administration, but ultimately, he could not persuade enough Republicans to go along with him, and reform went to the back of the line.
The failure of that legislation might actually be the best thing that could happen for the Republican nominee in 2008.
According to estimates by the Federation for American Immigration Reform, which supports restrictive policies like the ones in Prince William and Loudoun Counties, more than 171 state and local immigration bills have become law in 41 states just this year. More than 1,200 additional pieces of legislation that target illegal immigration are being drafted and considered.
A federal judge recently issued a permanent injunction against one such ordinance in Hazleton, Pa., a city with the cheery civic motto of "the toughest place on illegal immigrants in America." Ever vigilant, however, the city is vowing an appeal, all the way to the Supreme Court if necessary.
At this point in the 2004 presidential election cycle, few were talking about how much impact gay marriage -- essentially a non-issue in the White House race -- would shape the outcome. More than one expert, though, has said that without the gay-marriage measures on the ballot, George W. Bush would not have won a second term.
Now, some top Democratic officials believe that these seemingly local immigration initiatives could do the same thing in 2008.
So while the high profile of the campaign will focus on the war, the economy, trade and education, the lower road might be the one where operatives are targeting key states with this campaign's version of gay marriage.
No one ever said it was high-minded. It's the nativist strategy in the global age. And it could work.
----------
mtackett@tribune.com
posted by Carlos T Mock at 10:16 AM
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